The next presidential election in Turkey will be held no later than May 14, 2023. Political scientist and lawyer Dr. Arif Esin told Ukraina.ru in an exclusive interview about the election campaign and the mood of voters.
— Arif, what is the beginning of an election campaign in Turkey? What are the candidates' chances of success, advantages, strengths and weaknesses?
— We have two blocks, the first block is the President Erdogan and two small parties. The second block is the six opposition parties. Plus there is another group that supports the positions of the left. This is the Kurdish Democratic Party. This separate block also endorses the opposition candidate Mr. Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
In fact, there will be two candidates in this contest today. This is a very important and interesting topic in the election campaign, because it has never happened before.
Turkey suffered an earthquake, 15 cities were completely destroyed, and we can assume that Erdogan lost some of his voters because of this, because many citizens are angry with the authorities because they were not prepared to deal with the consequences of the disaster (the earthquake tipped voting trends as Erdogan's electorate changed sides due to the regime's inability).
And the current government is between two fires: the voters and the opposition.
The western part of Turkey, the Asian, Mediterranean and Marmara regions — a potential electorate for the left — oppose the incumbent president.
The opposition has a chance to win this election. I think the American and European agenda is also ready to recognize them. This is a very important point, because if the opposition comes to the polar pole [becomes pro— Western], what will be the relationship with Russia?
— The opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu is really supported by the Western coalition, does that help him?
— You know, the party of the left says that they are for Russia and in any case against Western countries, against the United States. I think relations between Turkey and Russia will be much deeper and more intense if the opposition wins.
— What can you say about the pro-Kurdish Peoples Party and its role in the elections?
— The role of the pro-Kurdish party is clear. It supports Mr. Kilicdaroglu. Without their support the opposition cannot win the elections.
— How do the presidential candidates in Turkey feel about Russia and Ukraine?
— You know, I think the opposition is much closer to Russia than the current president, because the left parties have had good relations with Russia throughout history. But you can't rule out the factor that President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan are good friends, and we have very good relations with Russia. But Erdogan also says that Turkey also has very good relations with Ukraine. I don't think this multi— vector in Erdogan's view will change.
— Does Erdogan's election campaign in Turkey has a good chance?
— No, Erdogan’s election campaigne is not effective because he is tired, he is 15 years in the power, he has not a new propositions for the people.
— Which candidate do you support?
— I support the opposition. CHP and Kilicdaroglu.
— What is going on in Turkey on the eve of the presidential elections among the people and in society?
— Turkey is recovering from the earthquake, there is a really bad situation in the economy and a lot of unrest among the people. In the big cities there is a serious economic crisis. In the countryside, Erdogan's agricultural policy has failed, as a result the right— wing electorate turns towards the Republicans and the left. Another important point Erdogan is interfering with people's lifestyle e.g. alcohol prohibition through high taxes. A final point he made an electoral alliance with the Islamist terrorist group. This is Hezbollah.
— How do you assess Turkey's role in the Ukrainian conflict?
— Turkey has not gotten involved in this conflict. In fact, we are making an economic contribution to both Russia and Ukraine, solving food problems and participating in the grain deal. Turkey has always been the same distance between Russia and Ukraine. And after the election, I think this will continue.