Russia should not extend the grain deal because the grain goes to the imperialist powers that supply Ukraine with weapons, not to poor third-world countries. Vladimir Putin said this. Recep Erdogan and the Turkish opposition hold the same opinion. Arif Esin, a doctor of economics, political scientist and lawyer, told Ukraina.ru about it. He also assessed the candidates' chances of winning the second round of the presidential election in Turkey.
In Turkey, the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections is over. Recep Erdogan gained 49.51% of the vote, while his main competitor Kemal Kilicdaroglu — 44.88%. These numbers are reported by TRT Haber state TV channel. The second round will be held on May 28.
— Arif, the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections took place in Turkey. Erdogan won 49.51 percent of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu won 44,88 percent. How can you comment on such a marginal difference in the votes by the candidates?
— First of all, Erdogan has not won yet. There will be a second round of elections in 15 days. For the first time, Erdogan did not get what he wanted in an election. Considering the votes of the two opposition candidates eliminated in the second round, Kilicdaroglu has a chance to win. If this problem can be solved in the next 15 days, Kilicdaroglu will win. Otherwise, Erdogan may have a chance again.
— How could the second round of elections end? What are the chances of Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu getting the votes of the outgoing candidates?
— If the opposition bloc can come to an agreement with the other opposition leader, Erdogan will lose. However, there is a dilemma at this point. Mr. Ogan wants the Syrians to be sent immediately and ties with the HDP — the Kurdish nationalist party — to be cut off. The first demand is already in the program of the People's Front. However, it is not possible to fulfill his second demand because 15% of Kilicdaroglu's votes come from left and Kurdish voters.
— What could happen in Turkey before May 28, the second round of elections?
— The opposition, like the government, made all its promises. Nothing new can be added. But the opposition will retell its theses in a more understandable way. They will emphasize this fact even more in this environment where the economy is very deteriorated.
— In 2014, during the presidential elections in Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko disagreed with Viktor Yanukovich's victory and the vote count. Yushchenko organized a protest rally and initiated a third round of elections, where he won (essentially illegally). Can a similar situation (change of power) happen in Turkey?
— I was in Kiev at that time. I followed the events very closely. However, this possibility is not available in Turkey. No third round with street moves. Our constitutional order does not allow such a thing. Although these elections took place in a very tense atmosphere in Turkey, but there was not the slightest criminal incident.
— The renewal of the grain deal on May 18 — this date will be between the first and second rounds of elections. Will this effect Turkey's position in the grain deal? Will Russia extend the deal?
— The grain deal has nothing to do with Turkey. It's a matter between superpowers. Turkey is a simple tool here. I think Russia should not extend the deal. This grain shipment is going to the imperialist powers supplying Ukraine with weapons instead of the poor third world countries. President Putin has expressed this. Erdogan is of the same opinion. The Turkish opposition is of the same opinion.
There is also another fundamental problem in Turkish-Russian relations. Kilicdaroglu says Putin intervened in the elections in favor of Erdogan. In this process, Russia must remain neutral. Because if the opposition wins, there will be an unnecessary coldness in relations. Russia and Turkey need to develop their relations regardless of power and build a permanent and mutually beneficial future.
— How do Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu voters behave? What is the mood in Turkey?
— It is too early to answer this question for now. Because it has been 48 hours since the elections ended. Erdogan's voters are happy because they partially believed they would lose. The opposition was stunned because they did not expect such a result. If Erdogan's voters do not become complacent, they will win. However, if the voters of the eliminated candidates go to the ballot box in the discipline, Kilicdaroglu wins. In summary, the result is clear. Already, Turkey has been divided 50/50 for many years. Winner narrowly breasts the rope.